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First Week of April 2024

CORN:

Last Friday’s USDA Prospective Planting Intensions Report and the US Quarterly Grain Stocks report were full of surprises. As you chew on this data and put it into perspective, you will see that lower corn acres could potentially see a lower US carryover, unless we have record yields. With this big drop in corn acres, there is a bump up in soybean acres, but a chunk of the lost corn acres moved to CRP according to this data. As the calendar rolls over to April now, today will be the first day in 2024 we will see the USDA Weekly Crop Progress and Condition report, to monitor the corn planting progress.

  • Total intended US corn acres for 2024 is 90.036 million. Compared to 94.641 million in 2023 or down 4.6 million.
  • Quarterly corn stocks were down 80 million bushels from the trade estimates at 8.35 billion bushels.
  • Commodity trading funds are net- short 251,730 corn contracts.
  • US Weekly Inspections for corn exports is at 1.432 million metric tons, which is above trade estimates.

SOYBEANS:

The soybean intended acres was in-line with where traders we’re estimating it to be and is up from last year. Overall, the soybean acre number was not a surprise in the report. The Quarterly Grain Stocks US data for soybean inventory was up slightly from where traders estimated pre-report. Focus will continue to monitor the South American crop harvest, along with switching gears to the US planting season and weather prospects here.

  • US Planted Acres 2024 for soybeans are intended at 86.510 million acres. This is up 2.9 million acres from last year.
  • US Quarterly Grain Stocks for soybeans was 1.845 billion bushels or 17 million bu. above the average trade guess.
  • US Weekly Inspections for exports of soybeans was 414,000 metric tons, traders were looking for 500-900 mt estimate.
  • Brazilian soybean harvest is reported to be 74% complete last week.

WHEAT:

The USDA Planting Intentions Report showed wheat acres to increase slightly from the average trade estimate going into the report. Wheat acres were down significantly from last year. Below is a breakdown of the data from the report. Traders continue to keep a watchful eye on Russia due to the war conflicts and news in that region.

  • Prospective Planting for All Wheat, was 47.498 million acres. Down from the 2023 report of 49.575 million acres. The avg trade guess was 47.330 M acres.
  • Winter wheat acres are estimated to be 34.135 million acres planted.
  • Spring wheat acres are estimated to be 11.335 million acres planted.
  • Durum wheat acres are estimated to be 2.028 million acres planted.
  • The Quarterly Grain Stocks for wheat was 1.087 billion bushels.
  • US Weekly Inspections for wheat exports is 499,000 metric tons, which is above trade guesses.
  • USDA weekly Crop Progress begins today, with winter wheat conditions reported, as well as spring-planted crops progress.

CATTLE:

An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian flu cases in dairy cattle has spread now from two states involved to five states in the past week. It is presumed to be spreading through migrating birds, but there is speculation of cow to cow spreading in a recent case in Michigan from cows that originated from an infected farm in Texas. So far, this has only been in dairy cows, not beef cattle. Fears of it spreading beyond dairy cattle to beef cattle herds has initially weakened cattle prices.

  • Commodity trading funds remain net-long live cattle futures contracts.
  • Continued strength in the cash cattle relative to futures.
  • Choice boxed beef priced dropped last week, with select rising in price.

HOGS:

The USDA Hogs & Pigs Report came out last week and was bearish compared to what traders were expecting. Traders immediately shrugged off the report on Monday morning, as they continued to focus on demand instead. This USDA survey is also pointing to more hogs this summer, than a year ago, a 1.3% increase. Details from report below as a % of year-ago.

  • All hogs on March 100.6%.
  • Kept for breeding 97.9%.
  • Kept for marketing 100.8%.
  • Market hogs/pigs by weight: under 50 lbs was 101.5%.
    • 50-119 lbs was 101.5%.
    • 120-179 lbs was 100.3%.
    • Over 180 lbs was 99.4%.
  • Dec-Feb pig crop 101.9%.
  • Dec-Feb pigs/litter 104.6%.
  • Dec-Feb farrowings 97.4%.
  • Mar-May farrowing intentions 99.1%.
  • Jun-Aug farrowing intentions 98.3%.

Give us a call for more information on our consulting and advisory services offered at Bullpen Trading LLC, for all levels of agribusinesses. 507-424-6339  

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