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Fourth Week of March 2024

CORN:

Thursday is the USDA report where we see the US 24/25 Prospective Planting Intentions acres. Traders are looking for fewer corn acres than last year, as well as slightly fewer acres than the USDA Feb. Outlook conference number. Also keep in mind that acres can shift (after this report) due to weather conditions. This report also covers the Quarterly Grain Stocks for
the US. This report does not give updated estimates on South America or world grain stocks.

  • The average trade estimate for US 24/25 corn planting is 91.776 million acres.
  • Last year US corn was at 94.641 million acres. Making the current trade estimate (if realized) will be down 2.8% from last year.
  •  The average trade estimate for March 1 Grain Stocks in corn is 8.427 billion bushels.
  • If realized the trade estimate for corn Grain Stocks would be 14.2% above last year.

SOYBEANS:

The US grain and livestock markets will all be closed Friday, March 29 for the Good Friday holiday. Traders will have a three-day weekend to evaluate the USDA report. The focus will also remain on South America and weather for finishing crops, as traders know there is a smaller Brazilian crop than last year, but how much is still to be determined.

  • The average trade estimate for the US 24/25 soybean planting is 86.530 million acres.
  • Last year US soybean acreage totaled 83.60 million acres. Making the current trade estimate (if realized) to be up 3.1% from last year.
  • The USDA February Outlook conference pegged soybean planting at 87.5 million acres, which is higher than the current average trade estimate.
  • The US ag attaché in Brazil sees this year’s soybean crop at 152.6 MMT, which is below the current USDA official estimate of 155.0 MMT.
  • The average trade estimate for March 1 Grain Stocks in soybeans is 1.828 billion bushels.
  • If realized the Grain Stocks estimate for soybeans would be up 8.8% above last year.

WHEAT:

The USDA Planting Intentions report on Thursday will break down the wheat acres into four different categories: all wheat, spring wheat, winter wheat, and durum. Besides the USDA report out this week, traders will be keeping an eye on Russia with market triggering potential developments there.:

  • The average trade estimate for 24/25 “All Wheat” is 47.330 million acres.
  • The average trade estimate for 24/25 Spring Wheat is 10.891 million acres.
  • The average trade estimate for 24/25 Winter Wheat is 34.870 million acres.
  • The average trade estimate for 24/25 Durum is 1.652 million acres.
  • The average trade estimate for wheat stocks is 1,044 million bushels.

CATTLE:

Last Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was considered bearish, due to the placement numbers, that set the tone for weaker cattle futures on Monday morning. Keep in mind that cattle Placements were disrupted in January due to weather, so placements are higher in this report in part to make up for the previous month. There was also an extra day in February
versus year-ago due to Leap Year. Cash cattle trade ended the week much higher, with record prices quoted in all cash traded regions.

  • Cattle on Feed report showed March 1 feedlot inventory up 1.3% from last year.
  • Cattle on Feed report showed placements had jumped 9.7% in February.
  • Cattle on Feed report showed marketings increased 3.4% in February.
  • The April futures chart resistance is $188.75.

HOGS:

Lean hog futures continue to march higher, with a solid uptrend on the price charts since the first of the year. The Easter holiday week is expected to keep pork products, especially hams on feature for retailers. Price levels are at a level that hits resistance from packers to pay up at these prices.

  • The Commitment of Traders data shows managed money is now adding more short positions than longs to their holdings.
  • The recent Hog & Pigs report showed US pork production in February was up 9.9% from
    last year.
  • China’s average spot pig price rose 4.1% last week, up 5.6% year to date.

Give us a call for more information on our consulting and advisory services offered at Bullpen Trading LLC, for all levels of agribusinesses. 507-424-6339  

“The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is a substantial investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.”