CORN:
Choppy two-sided trade is expected in the grains as traders position themselves for the upcoming USDA Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports this Thursday, April 11th. This report will include South America as well as US & Global Ending Stocks. The following are trade estimates for this report:
- 2023/24 US Grain Ending Stocks average estimate for corn is 2.102 billion bushels.
- 2023/24 Brazil Crop Production average estimate for corn is 121.8 million tons.
- 2023/24 Argentina Crop Production average estimate for corn is 55.8 million tons.
- 2023/24 World Grain Ending Stocks average estimate for corn is 316.6 million tons.
SOYBEANS:
Trade estimates for soybeans for the upcoming USDA report has traders looking for a rise in US ending stocks, a drop in Brazilian production, a slight rise in Argentina production, and a drop in the World Ending Stocks. The following are the trade estimates for this report:
- 2023/24 US Grain Ending Stocks average estimate for soybeans is 319 million bushels.
- 2023/24 Brazil Crop Production average estimate for soybeans is 151.8 million tons.
- 2023/24 Argentina Crop Production average estimate for soybeans is 50.7 million tons.
- 2023/24 World Grain Ending Stocks average estimate for soybeans is 113.6 million tons.
WHEAT:
Wheat traders will be positioning for the upcoming report for US stocks, as well as World stocks data. Traders will also be watching the weekly Crop Progress report released this afternoon to see how USDA is rating the current crop growth. The following are trade estimates for Thursday’s USDA report:
- 2023/24 US Grain Ending Stocks average trade estimate for wheat is 691 million bushels.
- 2023/24 World Grain Ending Stocks average trade estimate for wheat is 259.1 million tons.
CATTLE:
Live cattle futures have been on the defensive since the headlines came out about the bovine influenza infecting dairy cattle in a few states. There have been a lot of news agencies hyping fear of this flu spreading and crossing over to beef cattle, which it has not. One person who contracted the flu was working directly with the dairy cattle infected, this case was mild, and isolated.
- Influenza cases in dairy cows have been determined to not be the same highly pathogenic avian influenza seen in past years.
- This morning Boxed Beef Choice is up $4.59 and Select is up $6.78
- Friday, April 19 is the next USDA Cattle on Feed Report.
HOGS:
Robust cash fundamentals have led the rally supporting lean hog futures to the upside. The rally in hog futures has been blazing hot since late January of this year, with no end in sight. Commodity trading funds are heavily long futures in this market with a lot of profits on the table. When this market does break, the downside could be punishing with fund liquidation.
- Pork exports were strong in February at 593.4 million lbs., with a 22.0% jump in volume going to Mexico.
- April Lean Hogs futures contract expires this Friday and settles with the cash index.
- The Lean Hog cash index has surged over $20 since the first of the year.
- Packer margins continue to show profitability even at higher prices.
Give us a call for more information on our consulting and advisory services offered at Bullpen Trading LLC, for all levels of agribusinesses. 507-424-6339
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