CORN:
We are currently in the time frame of waiting to see how the South American corn crops turn out and for the release of the Prospective Planting Report in the US. This points to potential choppy trade in corn futures. The following are areas to pay attention to:
- Weather concerns in SA, with extended forecasts going hot & dry.
- Commodity trading funds are holding large, short contracts of corn futures.
- Extended cold forecasts in US Midwest slows early planting expectations.
- Recent US drought monitor shows 72% of Midwest as abnormally dry.
SOYBEANS:
There is a big discrepancy between the USDA estimates for soybeans in Brazil versus CONAB on where they are projecting the Brazilian crop for ’23 and ‘24. This is creating a lot of uncertainty for soybean futures. The following are areas to pay attention to:
- February in the Midwest was the warmest in 130 years.
- Brazil soybean harvest is estimated to be over 60% complete with farmers selling.
- February crush reported by NOPA, greatly exceeded estimates.
- Commodity trading funds are holding large, short contracts of soybean futures.
WHEAT:
CBOT wheat futures appear to be trading in a sideways pattern once again as traders assess the global supply and demand potential. The following are areas to pay attention to:
- Ukraine war rages on, with increased attacks on agricultural facilities.
- Cold temperatures in US could threaten wheat production in some areas.
- May SRW futures charts show resistance at $5.42, and support is at $5.28 ½.
- Talk of China canceling purchases made from multiple origins, or possible delays.
CATTLE:
Strong fundamentals continue to dominate cattle futures, but chart technical are holding prices from advancing to new levels. The following are areas to pay attention to:
- Rising wholesale beef prices have pushed packers to raise their bids in the cash market.
- Cash cattle prices ended last week higher in the South and sharply higher in the North.
- Slaughter levels reached a 4-week high with 601,000 head last week.
- Seasonal demand building has begun.
- Chart support is at $185.00 with resistance at $187.25.
HOGS:
Cash fundamentals continue to lead lean hog futures higher, but the price charts are hitting resistance which could limit further gains. The following are areas to pay attention to:
- Commodity trading funds remain long futures but have begun to trim back net longs.
- Summer futures contracts trade well above the nearby futures market.
- Wholesale pork values continue to remain strong.
- Chart support for the April contract is at $85.83, with resistance at $87.52.
Give us a call for more information on our consulting and advisory services offered at Bullpen Trading LLC, for all levels of agribusinesses. 507-424-6339
“The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is a substantial investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.”