Sorting It Out

A tropical summer storm that hits a soybean farm for human consumption. Agriculture area in southern Brazil. Grain production for export. Agribusiness.

First Week of December 2023

CORN: This Friday the USDA will update Supply and Demand reports but will not be updating the US crop size again until the January report. The average trade estimate for US corn ending stocks is 2.152 billion bushels, which would be down three million from the November report. Traders are

Contrast in the field between plowed land ready for planting and raw land.

Last Week of November 2023

CORN: CBOT corn futures continue to follow the path of least resistance lower. This choppy to lower trade has led December corn futures to fall to levels last seen in July 2021. Corn has lacked demand news to create its own leadership away from what is viewed as burdensome supply

Brazil Soybeans

Third Week of November 2023

CORN: The CBOT corn futures are giving the first real hint at following the soybean futures higher due to the Brazilian drought and weather market. Corn traders have been stubbornly pushing prices lower on the sluggish US export business. Last week’s USDA November Crop Production report pushed the 2023/24 Global

a shipload of grain on a tanker symbolizing the export conflict in ukraine.

Second Week of November 2023

CORN: Managed funds continue to hold massive, short positions in corn futures. The US corn harvest is expected to largely wrap up this week, which could keep basis firming. Traders are looking for a slight rise in corn yields in Thursday’s USDA November Crop Production report, from 173 bpa, to

An ethanol production plant in South Dakota.

First Week of November 2023

CORN: The US corn futures continue to grind sideways on the price charts, trading tightly in a mostly twenty-five cent range. Corn futures have been stuck in this range since the beginning of August. Each time trading attempts a move in the upper end of the range, it hits chart-based

Night views of cargo terminal for loading grain cargo by shore cranes. Port Tacoma, WA

Fourth Week of October 2023

CORN: Traders are quickly shifting a focus from US crops to the South American crops (and weather) as one season wraps up and the other is starting. The Brazilian first corn crop is estimated to be 46% planted, which is just below last year’s pace of 51% at this time.

Hogs in a Green Pasture

Third Week of October 2023

CORN: Currently traders are focused on the harvest underway, geopolitical risks, and the long-term outlook for corn. Corn futures have been pushed in both directions for several weeks, resulting in a price chart with a less than fifty-cent (sideways) trading range for quite some time. The crude oil market continues

Second Week of October 2023

CORN: On Thursday USDA will release the October Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports. The average trade estimate for the 2023 corn crop yield is 173.5 bushels per acre. This estimate is down from September’s 173.8 BPA. The average trade estimate for the corn crop size is 15.121 billion bushels. That

Harvested corn field with a rainbow

First Week of October 2023

CORN: Last Friday’s USDA September 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks report was friendly to corn prices. It came in at 1.361 billion bushels versus the average trade guess of 1.429 billion bushels. The USDA also revised the 2022 Crop Production in corn from 13.730 billion bushels (January estimate) down to 13.715