Sorting It Out

Dry cracked earth with plant struggling for life, drought

Third Week of July 2023

CORN: The 2023 drought will likely be one that people will look back on and talk about because it was not only hard to predict but has shown it can shift.  Even now, after parts of Illinois have seen heavy rains, many key areas of the Corn Belt remain extremely

Second Week of July 2023

CORN: With corn exports struggling to keep demand moving there was good news in the week ending June 29th, new crop exports totaled 418,000 MT, a much-needed bounce. The weather concerns and crop conditions of the US corn crop may have foreign importers concerned about the outcome. On Wednesday, July

silver steel corn silo on the farm

First Week of July 2023

CORN: A surprising 2 million acre increase in the June USDA corn acreage estimate relative to March captured all the market attention to end last week. That huge gain in production potential gave bears all the ammo they needed (with rain arriving in Illinois) to trigger a retest of the

Image of rain-laden clouds arriving over a large soy plantation

Last Week of June 2023

CORN: Last weekend’s weather system shifted and saw better rains for “some” very dry areas of the Midwest growing region. A few areas received a good amount, but many received only minimal rainfall. A large growing area in Central IL remains dry with crops there really needing rain. Extreme heat

Dry cultivated corn field land with cracks, top view of soil and maize crop plants with copy space

Fourth Week of June 2023

CORN: What seems like almost hourly changes in the weather forecasts mean traders will react to every weather model update. Currently there is not a lot of faith in the forecasts beyond five days as the weather models are throwing off false data that changes as we get closer. This

Dry corn field rows

Third Week of June 2023

CORN: With soil moisture across the Midwest declining as insufficient amounts of rain made it to the ground, traders are becoming more concerned about the US crops. The well-advertised rain event this past weekend proved disappointing. And the current weather models are not showing substantial, widespread rainfall in the next

Very dry cornfield with early erosion.

Second Week of June 2023

CORN: A full blown weather market has grain futures on a wild volatility ride. Inconsistent weather models putting varying higher and lower chances of rain for drought-stricken areas are resulting in swinging prices. The driest areas haven’t seen substantial rainfall for a month and have endured high temperatures as well.

Rural landscape - field the soybean in the rays summer sun, closeup

First Week of June 2023

CORN: Welcome to our first “real” weather market trade for the US growing season! With a portion of the Midwest corn acres in substantially dry conditions, and little rain chances for the next 10 days. But this isn’t July 1st so the lack of rain in this very early stage

Early corn growth

Fourth Week of May 2023

CORN: With rapid planting progress this year, traders are penciling in a huge crop for the US growing season. At this very early stage there isn’t a big weather threat looming to disrupt the big crop expectations… Or is there? Well, the current 10-day forecast has very little precipitation across